By Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo – PhD:
In 1999, when Tsvangirai was addressing a fully packed Rufaro stadium, he rescued Reuben Barwe from a bash from his supporters, the former Trade Unionist calmed his angry supporters from bashing the controversial broadcaster. Tsvangirai said I quote ” uyu haana mhosva musiyei, ane nyaya munomuziwa”, and Reuben Barwe thanked Tsvangirai after the address.
This must be a lesson to many opposition forces and stalwarts who may think of establishing political parties, that despite Chamisa’s shortfalls, weaknesses, it’s not easy for Zimbabweans to shift the Political inclination and base. Zimbabweans have a political culture of loyalty, and it’s not easy to penetrate the current political space.
The current political space is occupied by either Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa. It’s normal for angry supporters to jeer on their leader, when it comes to shift Political base or changing Political party, Zimbabweans take their time to make such a decision.
There is likely to be a failed third force, or the so called ” United front or force”, and such political blunders are suicidal.
Let me take you to some few nuggets of political science. You need to study political narrative in the following ways :
- Political space
- Political wave
- Political decision
1.Nelson Chamisa was not elected by political structures.
2.Chamisa’s popularity came from the political space
- A Political decision was made through the Political wave
- In 2018, soon after the death of the late icon, Morgan Tsvangirai, there was a political wave which demanded ” Nelson Chamisa”, to be their next leader
- Political leaders are chosen from the political space, through a wave which makes Political indicators
- Current political indicators clearly points on Nelson Chamisa
- The political wave feeds into the Political space, and the wave made directives to have Nelson Chamisa as the next leader
- The reason why MDC T may struggle to become a competitive project, it is because the Political space remains with Nelson Chamisa
- What is it that Nelson Chamisa did to Zimbabweans that he deserve Presidency? Absolutely nothing. It’s a clear wave
- Nelson Chamisa brand is likely to be on the peek for the next 12-15 years
- Yes I may agree with you, there were political blunders which were made, but Zimbabweans made a decision already, and the political base is difficult to shift.
For those who disagree with me, call for an election tommorow, and you will witness what I have explained on this small piece.
Five key areas likely to take place before 2023 :
- Those who left with Khupe will bounce back in the Nelson Chamisa fold
- Possibility of a reunion
- Possibility of a ” third force” from both MDC T and MDC Alliance, but it will remain weak
- Splitting of votes from both Zanu PF and MDC Alliance
- Possibility of the Evan Mawarire type of politics ( project), which will fail at early stages
For now it’s Nelson Chamisa season, and you may not agree with him, but he is still in charge of political space.
Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo is the Head of Zimbabwe Institute of Strategic Thinking – ZIST, and he can be contacted at [email protected]